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Tuesday, February 21, 2012

Is Ted Cruz Headed to a Run-Off with Lt Gov Dewhurst?

The results of the latest poll conducted by the Texas Tribune and UT are in. If the results continue to hold, it appears that U.S. Senate candidate Ted Cruz is headed for a run-off against Lt. Gov Dewhurst in the GOP primary race.

Here’s a summary of the new independent, statewide poll:

•Dewhurst is at 38%, Cruz 27% and the next two candidates are 20 points behind at 7%.
•This means the race is headed for a runoff between Cruz and Dewhurst.
•Despite being in statewide office for 14 years and having universal name ID among GOP primary voters, the Lt. Governor is far from closing in on the 50% needed to avoid a runoff. And Cruz is in a solid second place, and surging strongly.
•A runoff would overwhelmingly favor Cruz, given that the most engaged and conservative voters would dominate a runoff – informed conservative voters are a nightmare for Dewhurst.
•Here’s how UT pollster Jim Henson summarizes the situation: “Cruz is in the advantageous position right now of, for the most part, defending his ideas against Dewhurst’s record. In the last few cycles, that’s been a good place to be, and not to be the person who’s having to defend your actions in government.”
•Henson added these numbers are a “yellow flag” for Dewhurst. And the Texas Tribune noted that Cruz is looming in the rearview mirror of Dewhurst.

This is indeed good news for the Cruz campaign.

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