Monday, October 17, 2011

Run-Off Likely From GOP Primary for Texas U.S. Senate Seat

A recent poll taken by an independent company, not paid for by any campaign, indicates a run-off is likely from the GOP primary for U.S. Senator in Texas. The seat vacated by retiring Senator Kay Bailey Hutchison is up for grabs in a field of several fine candidates. At the top now are former Texas Solicitor General Ted Cruz and current Lt. Governor David Dewhurst. It is a virtual tie for first place between the two men.

Azimuth polling is a non-partisan polling company.

The exact spread between the two frontrunners is less than 1% (.59%). The number of undecideds (including no response entries) remains very high, but is not enough to give either leading candidate a clear majority, suggesting the likelihood, at this early date, of a run-off.

Candidate Graph Percent

Ted Cruz 32%
David Dewhurst 31%
Tom Leppert 8%
Lela Pittenger 5%
Elizabeth Ames Jones 4%
Glenn Addison 3%
Andre Castanuela 1%
Curtis Cleaver 0%
Undecided 14%

What jumped out to me was how far back former Dallas Mayor Tom Leppert has fallen back. In earlier polling results, he was much stronger. His economic plan was widely accepted as well done.

The sample was taken from 4372 Republican voters from all across Texas. The participants were identified as Republican voters in 2008 and 2010, as well as party leaders and activists. In other words, these were not just registered voters, these people vote.

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