Friday, August 17, 2007

Following Numbers

Forbes.com did a poll about the personalities of the candidates. Barack Obama is most articulate. Fred Thompson is second in that question. Hillary consistently scores highest in the negative qualities of candidates. She's viewed as the meanest, most aggressive, only 30% view her as likable. Interesting.

This poll plays into the polling just out that Rudy has jumped in the lead over Hillary in a general election contest, 47-40. This is the biggest lead over Hillary yet. When the last polling was done, they were in a statistical tie. The data from the latest Rasmussen Reports says that Rudy continues to do well against Obama and Edwards, too.

Glenn Reynolds at Instapundit writes on his blog that this development doesn't bode well for Hillary. His idea is that Hillary is slipping in the polling against Rudy due to attacks from Obama and Edwards in recent days. Finally they are starting to act as though they are running against each other and not just against the non-candidate, President Bush. We have seen some zingers aimed at She Who Must Be Obeyed on the stumps by other Dem candidates. I don't know why they waited so long, frankly. What do they have to lose? Hillary will be the nominee, come hell or high water because the Clinton machine is a well run and cash heavy operation. These people are true pros, full of career politicians and advisers. This is what they do. Obama, in second place still after a robust start, is now 30 points down against Hillary in most polls. Edwards even further down. I also think this is why both men are using their wives to make the noise in interviews. So, Reynolds asks, if she is not holding up against Rudy this early in the season, how will she do in the general election when all the gloves are off?

And Fred Thompson? I think he has missed his window of opportunity. I know he is seen as the great hope for many of the most conservative Republicans, a group of which I am not a part, but I think with Romney's strong showing in Iowa and all the ads he is running, he will be able to win over the more conservative wing of the party. There is nothing wrong with Thompson, I suppose, but it's a little late in the game now and I, for one, am quite bored with his tease of when he'll announce and be serious. I'm not interested in cutesy, I expect better. Especially with the stakes so high this time around, as a nation at war and the distinct differences of how best to protect us at home during the war on terror. The Clinton administrations were a direct lead up to what we are dealing with now. Issuing subpoenas against terrorists didn't prove to be the most effective of strategies. The Islamofacists simply laughed and noted how unserious we were about impending threats.

Public opinion can be fickle, depending on the events of the day. It will be interesting to track if these findings hold over the next few months.

6 comments:

wordnerd said...

Great update. I'm with you -- this election is entirely too important to be wishy-washy, and that will end up hurting Thompson, who I consider a viable candidate (if he'll just put on the nose clip and dive on into the deep end).

Debbie said...

We may have to end up biting the bullet and voting for Rudy. I had high hopes for Fred, but you may be right about his window of opportunity. Time will tell. I still like him even though he's keeping Spencer Abraham on staff, but NOT as his campaign chairman.

The left doesn't really like Hillary, but they think she can win.

Paul is a Hermit said...

"She who must be obeyed."
I love that.

First, I hope you're on high ground, I've been seeing how the streets of Houston were rather flooded just now on, hush my mouth, MSNBC.

Women are quite powerful in the nominating process so far. Hillary mostly negative but how will Mrs. Giuliani come across and she is going to have to go through the mill, there's no escaping that effect on Rudy, Romney too but she seems to be out there; more than Rudy's wife.

I've been a Romney fan, more than Thompson, who I too, think is tap dancing too much but may have a strategy in there, somewhere. But if Giuliani gets nominated the 11th commandment kicks in for me.

The Vegas Art Guy said...

We're still way early to be giving up on Fred. If he does not jump in by October then I'll agree with you.

This has been a fun election to watch though.

Donald Douglas said...

Hi Karen: Great analysis...especially about Thompson.

I too think he's waited too long to jump in - and can he compete in the money race?

Burkean Reflections

Jennifer said...

I think Fred will get in soon. He's starting to make grander than usual position statements, one or two of which, I have to say, curdled my stomach just a bit yesterday.

Edwards. The "poor" man. But I get it now: his family's money is helping to create the two America's of which he speaks. No wonder he speaks from such place of authority on the matter.